Now that Messrs Porky Pig et al have introduced us to a new way of dying horribly, the entire world’s press is screaming “pandemic!” People in shops, offices and bars are discussing the possibility of a pandemic, and the World Health Organization has moved the status of porcine influenza A (H1N1), swine fever, or good old common-or-garden pig ‘flu to a pandemic warning level of five, out of a possible six. All very serious, even though the total number of deaths from swine fever so far are about the same as the number of people who have died whilst windsurfing off Cornwall. Disclaimer: some or all of the statistics in this piece may be made up, embellished, or just plain lies. Caveat lector.
Now everyone is scared out of their tiny minds by the possibility of a pandemic, they probably won’t be interested in what the word itself means. In case you’re asking yourself “is swine fever a pandemic or not?” – Read on.
I’m going to cut to the chase, as you’re probably all worried sick that you’ve started sniffling, coughing or feeling a bit woozy. Swine fever is not a pandemic, at least at the time I write this. The WHO says it has “pandemic potential”, and is warning all countries to get their pandemic preparedness plans in order ASAP. You see, in order to be a pandemic proper, there are three criteria that need to be filled:
- The microbe or virus can infect and cause serious illness in humans.
- Humans do not have an immunity (genetic or developed) against the virus.
- The virus spreads easily from person to person and survives in humans.
It’s currently the question of the potential to spread from human to human that is stopping it getting the full pandemic treatment. Once proven, there will be a full-blown faeces-and-fan situation declared, of that I’m sure.
So, it’s not a proper pandemic yet. Is it, perhaps, an epidemic? The best answer would be ‘possibly’. The Oxford English Dictionary defines an epidemic as “Prevalent among a people or a community at a special time, and produced by some special causes not generally present in the affected locality“. The difference between an epidemic and a pandemic is the word “disproportionate”. If, for example, ten thousand new cases of smallpox were reported across Europe, this would fit the definition of an epidemic because the disease has been all but eradicated on the continent. The expected number of cases per year would probably be in the 100s. If fifty thousand cases of the common cold were reported, it would be business as usual, so no epidemic status. It’s rather a loose term based on expected behaviour, so if the WHO or the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) say it’s one, it probably is.
OK, so now you’re all fully aware of what the difference is, I will stop writing. Mme Joad has been sneezing a lot recently, and I’d better go and lock her in the bathroom. Stay well.
